581
NOUS41 KWBC 182132
PNSWSH
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 02-52
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
530 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002
TO: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ EMPLOYEES...NOAAPORT
SUBSCRIBERS...FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA
WEATHER WIRE SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS /NWWS/....EMERGENCY
MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ USERS...AND
OTHER NWS CUSTOMERS
FROM: ROBERT E. LIVEZEY
CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION
SUBJECT: ISSUANCE OF U.S. DROUGHT OUTLOOK ON NOAAPORT AND FAMILY
OF SERVICES... EFFECTIVE OCTOBER 17 2002
EFFECTIVE OCTOBER 17 2002...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/
WILL ISSUE THE U.S. DROUGHT OUTLOOK ON NWS DISSEMINATION SYSTEMS
/LISTED IN THE ADDRESSEE SECTION ABOVE/ ONCE A MONTH ON A THURSDAY
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH AROUND 3:00 P.M. EASTERN LOCAL TIME.
THE OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING THREE AND A HALF MONTHS.
CPC WILL ISSUE THE GRAPHIC PRODUCT UNDER THE FOLLOWING PRODUCT
IDENTIFIERS:
GRAPHIC: WMO HEADING - PMNV88 KWNC AWIPS ID - RBGDRK
THE PRODUCT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR SEVERAL YEARS ON THE CPC
WEB SITE AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
CPC WILL ALSO ISSUE UNSCHEDULED UPDATES AT OTHER TIMES IF NEEDED.
CPC ISSUES THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH THEIR ONE-MONTH
AND THREE-MONTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS. THE DROUGHT
OUTLOOK IS USED FOR SEASONAL PLANNING BY AGRICULTURAL...WATER
SUPPLY...AND FIRE WEATHER MANAGERS.
CPC DEPICTS GENERAL LARGE-SCALE TRENDS BASED ON SUBJECTIVELY
DERIVED PROBABILITIES GUIDED BY NUMEROUS INDICATORS...INCLUDING
SHORT AND LONG RANGE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMIC FORECASTS. CPC
INDICATES PREDICTED TRENDS FOR ONGOING DROUGHT AREAS DEPICTED IN
THE WEEKLY U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AS WELL AS POSSIBLE AREAS OF NEW
DROUGHTS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
CPC USES 4 CATEGORIES TO DEPICT EXPECTED DROUGHT CONDITIONS PLUS A
FIFTH CATEGORY FOR NO DROUGHT EXPECTED. THESE ARE DESCRIBED AS
FOLLOWS:
DROUGHT TO PERSIST OR INTENSIFY
DROUGHT ONGOING - SOME IMPROVEMENT
DROUGHT LIKELY TO IMPROVE - IMPACTS EASE
DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
NO DROUGHT EXPECTED
CPC WILL ALSO ISSUE A CONCURRENT DROUGHT OUTLOOK DISCUSSION
DETAILING THE ATMOSPHERIC...HYDROLOGIC...AND CLIMATIC CONDITIONS
AFFECTING THE TRENDS OF DROUGHT AREAS. THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE
ISSUED UNDER THE FOLLOWING PRODUCT IDENTIFIERS:
TEXT: WMO HEADING - FXUS22 KWNC AWIPS ID - PMDDRK
CPC WILL INCLUDE AN EXPLANATION OF THE RATIONALE BEHIND THE OUTLOOK
WITH A DISCUSSION OF THE WEIGHTS GIVEN TO VARIOUS TOOLS USED IN THE
OUTLOOK AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THOSE TOOLS. CPC WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
REASONING BEHIND MONTHLY CHANGES IN DROUGHT OUTLOOK CONDITIONS.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...CONTACT
DOUG LECOMTE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - W/NP51
5200 AUTH RD.
CAMP SPRINGS MD 20746-4304
PHONE: 301-763-8000 EXT 7567
THIS NOTICE AND OTHER SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
$$
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