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521
NOUS42 KWNO 032115
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
2113Z WED AUG 03 2011
A CHANGE TO THE HWRF MODEL SAS DEEP CONVECTION PARAMETERIZATION
SCHEME WAS IMPLEMENTED AS OF THE 18Z WED AUG 3 2011 CYCLE TO
CORRECT AN OUT-OF-BOUND ARRAY PROBLEM AND TO PREVENT RELATED MODEL
FAILURES.
TESTING AND EVALUATION FROM THE 2010 AND 2011 SEASONS SHOWED THIS
CHANGE ALSO RESULTED IN:
1. A LARGE REDUCTION IN NORTHWARD BIAS OFTEN SEEN IN EASTERN
PACIFIC HURRICANE TRACKS.
2. A 35 PERCENT IMPROVEMENT IN HURRICANE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS AND
A 20 PERCENT IMPROVEMENT IN INTENSITY FORECASTS.
$$
HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP