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*NOAA Predicts Active 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season*
*
Era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes continues
*Contact*
Maureen O'Leary, maureen.oleary@xxxxxxxx, 301-713-0622
May 23, 2013
In its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA's
Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an active or extremely active
Atlantic hurricane season this year.
For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA's Atlantic
Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to
20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could
become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major
hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6
hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
"With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active
season predicted,everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving
forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are
prepared and ready ahead of time." said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA
acting administrator. "As we saw first-hand with Sandy, it's important
to remember that tropical storm and hurricane impacts are not limited to
the coastline. Strong winds, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes
often threaten inland areas far from where the storm first makes landfall."
Hurricane Sandy as seen from NOAA's GOES-13
satellite on October 28, 2012. (Credit: NOAA
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Hurricane Sandy
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Climate.gov video:
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NOAA meteorologist Gerry
Bell describes the outlook and the climate
conditions responsible for the jump in Atlantic
hurricane activity beginning in 1995.
Three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity
are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active
2013 hurricane season. These are:
* A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a
strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era
of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;
* Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic
Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and
* El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation.
"This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are
expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes," said Gerry Bell,
Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction
Center. "These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic
waters and conducive winds patterns coming from Africa."
NOAA's seasonal hurricane outlook is not a hurricane landfall forecast;
it does not predict how many storms will hit land or where a storm will
strike. Forecasts for individual storms and their impacts will be
provided throughout the season by NOAA's National Hurricane Center
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New for this hurricane season are improvements to forecast models, data
gathering, and the National Hurricane Center communication procedure for
post-tropical cyclones. In July, NOAA plans to bring online a new
supercomputer that will run an upgraded Hurricane Weather Research and
Forecasting (HWRF) model that provides significantly enhanced depiction
of storm structure and improved storm intensity forecast guidance.
Also this year, Doppler radar data will be transmitted in real time from
NOAA's Hurricane Operations Center Hurricane Hunter aircraft. This will
help forecasters better analyze rapidly evolving storm conditions, and
these data could further improve the HWRF model forecasts by 10 to 15
percent.
The National Weather Service has also made changes to allow for
hurricane warnings to remain in effect, or to be newly issued, for
storms like Sandy that have become post-tropical. This flexibility
allows forecasters to provide a continuous flow of forecast and warning
information for evolving or continuing threats.
"The start of hurricane season is a reminder that our families,
businesses and communities need to be ready for the next big storm,"
said Joe Nimmich, FEMA associate administrator for Response and
Recovery. "Preparedness today can make a big difference down the line,
so update your family emergency plan and make sure your emergency kit is
stocked. Learn more about how you can prepare for hurricane season at
www.ready.gov/hurricanes.
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Next week, May 26 - June 1, is National Hurricane Preparedness Week. To
help those living in hurricane-prone areas prepare, NOAA is offering
hurricane preparedness tips, along with video and audio public service
announcements in both English and Spanish, featuring NOAA hurricane
experts and the FEMA administrator at www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/
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NOAA'soutlook for the Eastern Pacific
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basin is for a below-normal hurricane season and the Central Pacific
basin
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is also expected to have a below-normal season. NOAA will issue an
updated seasonal outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season in early
August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.
*Additional information can be found on the following web sites:*
* Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Outlook (discussion)
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
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* El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion,
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/
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* National Hurricane Preparedness Week,
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/
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* FEMA, www.ready.gov
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